What Really Matters
TLDR: Some systems are predictable while others are less so. Muscle building, directly tied to gym performance, is almost deterministic for beginners and needs sophisticated layers only for advanced lifters. Most people should keep it simple for maximum gains - Stimulus and Recovery.
We can pinpoint the timings and positions of solar eclipses thousands of years into the future but struggle with predicting tomorrow's weather. How is this possible? More importantly, is muscle-building highly predictable like an eclipse, or a chaotic guessing game like the weather?
Predictable vs Chaotic
The answer lies in the limits to how we model reality. The more accurate our model, the more accurate the predictions. With repeated experiments and expanding data, we can add layers and nuance to our understanding. At first, our guess might be as basic as a 'trend' line. As data improves, we refine the model—adding curves, inflection points, and nuance. With every new step, the model gets closer to the truth.
For example, think of a phenomenon that repeats itself over and over. But we do not yet understand the exact math behind it. As shown in these plots below, we add more 'factors' to our model over iterations and get closer to the truth.
Looking pretty accurate with just 15 iterations!
What's surprising here is that just a few iterations get you most of the way there. And that's what happens with eclipse predictions - some of the factors (like the masses, positions and velocities of the planets/moons/stars involved) are so much more potent than others (like the composition and age of celestial objects) that the value of adding more complexity diminishes incredibly fast.
But this is not always the case and is in contrast with seemingly more erratic systems like the weather, markets or immune responses. In such cases, it feels like there's always a significant 'last minute factor' to account for.
If you look at the lifting community, you'll see both schools of thought. On one extreme, they say if you do not know exactly what you'd be doing BEFORE stepping into the gym, you're not serious (the 'deterministic' group). On the other end, we see elite lifters who calibrate their day with a 'top' set and then scale their workout up/down accordingly (the 'stochastic' folks).
The simple truth about lifting for strength and muscle gain is that no matter how much complexity you add, it's always sub-components of the absolute fundamentals — Stimulus and Recovery. The more we analyze what we know, the more we realize this game is far more stable than random. Meaning, the first few orders matter far more than the ones that follow.
The lifter who is autoregulating today's session with a top single is playing a higher order game - a necessary correction because they nailed their basics so well that they're now starting to see gaps in their training model - like unexpected fatigue accumulated over the last few sessions despite playing by the book.
But for most lifters, there's still so much untapped potential. A beginner whose body is craving stimulus might do themselves a disservice by skipping the plan and fine-tuning too early. Similarly, an intermediate lifter might be exposed to unnecessary risks by copying their powerlifter idol in their peaking program without building the baseline work capacity. Copying another lifter is almost never the answer.
So What Should You Do?
Going back to the original debate about pre-calculating exactly what to do vs deciding on the fly, the answer is: it depends on the level of advancement of the lifter.
- A beginner probably needs something more prescriptive — an almost deterministic path.
- An advanced lifter may need something more nuanced — which to a beginner might seem like a step backward.
Acknowledging where you stand and then resorting to the basics almost always is the right move. Helping you navigate those layers of complexity is exactly why I built Jackked. It emphasizes the most important factors that drive progress.
Step 1 (first-order, most powerful)
Pick the right balance of Movement Patterns instead of worrying about exercise selection. 80% of your plan is already in place with just this. A Movement Pattern is, roughly speaking, a group of very related exercises. Barbell Bench Press vs Dumbbells vs Machine press — they all train the 'Horizontal Push' Movement Pattern.
Plan by Movement Patterns first, specific exercises after.
Step 2
For each exercise, choose a rep scheme that nails your target volume, intensity and proximity to failure.
Your rep scheme combined with your recent maxes → workout session.
At this point, you have a rock-solid program: a foundation to confidently execute your workouts.
| Type |
What |
Why |
| Planned |
Schedule |
Right TYPE of stimulus |
| Planned |
Rep-Scheme |
Right AMOUNT of stimulus |
| Unplanned |
Lift Logs |
Load tailored to your current level |
Step 2b
If you're not feeling it today, you can even choose a 'Light' or 'Deload' day without any disruption — maintaining the momentum rather than fretting over missed perfection.
Switch to 'Light' mode, keep up your flow.
The app goes as deep as you want it to, but it arranges the complexity so the factors that actually drive progress are always front and center. Feel free to explore the site for other articles (like this one) where we dive deeper into Jackked's advanced tweaking features.